Recently, Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics commissioned a study on the impacts of pandemic-based lockdowns centering on COVID-19. Led by Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, the study’s authors also included Jonas Herby, special advisor at Center for Political Studies in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as Lars Jonung, professor emeritus in economics at Lund University Sweden. After a systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the empirical evidence in the support of the proof that lockdowns reduce COVID-19 mortality, the author’s 62-page study uncovered those lockdowns “reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average,” a de minimis figure when understanding the impacts of such actions. The true costs of the COVID-19 lockdowns ranged from severely reducing economic activity to raising unemployment, creating the conditions for political unrest, and contributing to domestic violence while overall serving to undermine liberal democracy.

First, the authors employed searchers to identify 18,590 studies that potentially covered the belief that lockdowns reduced mortality during a pandemic-like situation. However, the authors conducted three review cycles to narrow their research down to just 34 core eligible studies, and 24 qualified for inclusion. Thereafter, the trio separated the 24 studies into three categories, including:

Lockdown stringency index studies
Shelter-in-place order (SIPO) studies
Specific NPI studies (non-pharmaceutical intervention)

After systematic and comprehensive analyses of each category, the scholars concluded that lockdowns don’t have the material effect that public health bureaucrats, administrative branch executives, and politicians touted. In fact, when studying stringency index studies, the authors shared that lockdown actions in Europe and the United States led only to a 0.2% reduction in mortality. Moreover, SIPOs led to only a 2.9% reduction in mortality on average. The authors also found that based on their exhaustive review of NPI studies they could find no comprehensive evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality.

Lead Research/Investigator

Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise

Jonas Herby, special advisor at Center for Political Studies in Copenhagen, Denmark

Lars Jonung, professor emeritus in economics at Lund University Sweden