At least in the United Kingdom (UK), reports of growing apprehension of over-vaccination now become a topic ever more injected into the mainstream press. Growing numbers of mainstream experts now step forward suggesting greater amounts of data are needed before moving to a fourth boost, for example. Should SARS-CoV-2 vaccine boosts be offered every quarter? Not according to a growing chorus suggesting not only health and safety risks but also a potential oppositional impact, adversely impacting immunity not to mention big economic costs. Could Omicron represent the “natural vaccine?” asks some, while others suggest that declaration is quite premature. Regardless, the mainstream media in Britain opens for a more critical view of ongoing COVID-19 vaccination efforts.
This emerging dialogue among Britons isn’t occurring in right-wing conspiracy websites and chat rooms but rather on the front page of media such as the Daily Mail, the UK’s highest-circulating newspaper.
Are the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel on the brink of over-vaccination? TrialSite suggests that mounting data indicate the appropriateness of caution moving forward. What are the true risk-benefit analyses associated with the COVID-19 vaccines? That is, when factoring in waning effectiveness, risks of adverse events, and the reality that 90%+ of COVID-19 cases are mild-to-moderate at most, a one-size-fit-all eradication of SARS-CoV-2 via vaccination must be carefully evaluated for true efficacy. Of course, industry, academia, and government that have large amounts of credibility invested in this approach become ever more defensive, even combative as critical questioning intensifies.
While a fourth boost regimen hasn’t been announced, nor are there any formal plans yet in other places such as Israel, those plans are already unfolding. But the bigger implication follows a very common sensible line of reasoning. If the vaccines wane in effectiveness with more transmissible variants, and in the case of Omicron where the current vaccines appear not as impactful, do continuous updates to vaccines based on mutant variants and a quarterly shot make sense? What are the risks for such a regimen? Some scientists become ever more concerned that a dangerous regimen of continuous vaccination threatens human health. Particularly given that all data points thus far indicate the highly transmissible Omicron appears to be far milder than Delta.
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Recently, the Senior Health Reporter for Daily Mail’s MailOnline, John Ely, covers this topic for the mainstream media—again with the largest audience in the UK. The reporter’s piece evidences the growing cautionary tendencies emerging among Britons, a heavily vaccinated people. Over 70% of Britons are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 while nearly 50% of the nation have already received their third boost.
But could the Omicron variant of concern represent the transition of the pandemic to endemic, given the milder nature of associated infections? Mr. Ely reports that a University of Reading virologist and professor, Ian Jones, thinks so. He believes this to be the case as it is far more transmissible yet much milder than previous variants thus priming the immunity without much downside. Given the heavy vaccination already some data indicate infection plus vaccination provides superior long-term protection.
USA Infections Grow
America entered 2022 with record numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections thanks to not only continuous Delta-driven infections but also rapidly growing Omicron influence. Records for new infections in America were smashed on December 30 with 512,533 infections, according to Johns Hopkins University data, and 443,538 new infections on December 31, according to Our World in Data and New York Times originating data. While deaths in the U.S. are down, they still count over 1,300 in one day just yesterday based on a seven-day average. This still represents an unacceptable amount of mortality for this stage of the pandemic.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests that as much as 40% to 70% of the new infections are due to the highly contagious Omicron variant of concern.
But what countries have administered the most doses per 100 persons? Daily Mail reports they include:
United Kingdom
Israel
Canada
Australia
United States
Interestingly, the Anglo-influenced nations are the most vaccinated per population (Israel was a British colony).
What’s the Direction?
In the case of Professor Jones, the answer lies with moving away from frequent boosters, and instead moving to an influenza flu shot model where boosters are available on an annual basis for those deemed vulnerable and high-risk.
Also aligned with the annual flu-shot-like model is Warwick University virologist and professor Lawrence Young. Focus attention, suggests the British virologist, on the high-risk populations. While a University of Reading microbiologist named Dr. Simon Clark concurs, he cannot foresee governments aggressively pushing frequent boosters much longer. According to Clark, only long-term data will reveal if the vaccines are effective over the long run. While some more open-minded epidemiologists indicate there may be a need for more frequent boosts but labeled such a situation a “daunting prospect.”
Concerns
While there is no doubt that the COVID-19 vaccines have contributed value in the battle against COVID-19 (e.g., lowering hospitalization and death rates), the boosters behind them must also consider the costs, from health and safety to socio-economic given just a few companies are pocketing fortunes based on what has been taxpayer-subsidized efforts. True, Pfizer notably waved some of the R&D help from the U.S. government; they also benefited immensely from nationalized demand stimulation via mandates for example. Pfizer has taken home about $30 billion in the first 12 months of selling their vaccine called BNT162b2 or Comirnaty.
Moreover, in the UK, if a quarterly COVID-19 vaccine regimen was needed, the actual costs would threaten the viability of the UK nationalized health system called the NHS. The cost would be staggering for what would amount to 50 million vaccines per quarter equaling 550,000 per day, reports Mr. Ely. The price tag to the Briton taxpayers: $5.4 billion per annum based on the Pfizer price point of £20 per dose in the UK.
So, the situation is complex, nuanced, and incorporates both positives and negatives.
Time to Look Holistically at Risks & Benefits
“The British mainstream media increasingly embraces not just the science that shows positive association to the jabs but also the negative implications,“ declared Daniel O’Connor, founder of TrialSite. O’Connor shared with this staff writer that “numerous studies reveal challenges with the current early-stage COVID-19 vaccine products, particularly in a most recent investigation, the decline in effectiveness in just several weeks.”
In fact, Daily Mail’s John Ely reports on the latest study revealing that COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness can wane to just 40% in 10 weeks (only 2.5 months).
With a growing recognition, at least in the UK, that the COVID-19 vaccines come with both benefits and costs, with the latest data indicating waning effectiveness, a growing chorus of academic scientists raise the specter of caution, even restraint as more data is needed to understand the true benefits of a fourth booster more comprehensively.