Israeli Experts Warn Vaccine Immunity is on the Wane as Cases Nearly Double & R Number Rises

In an article in the Israeli daily HaAretz, the health panel advising Israel’s government “believes another covid wave is on the horizon in light of waning vaccine effectiveness.” The article goes on to claim that even though a vaccine drive for children between five and eleven is beginning, this will not slow a new onslaught of COVID-19. TrialSite is monitoring multiple health centers in Israel to determine the effectiveness of this last mass booster program. New cases shot up—nearly doubled on Monday, November 22. If this trend continues, serious questions about mass vaccination must be immediately raised.  

Israel experienced high levels of breakthrough infections which led to the nationwide booster program by late summer.  By October reports of success were ubiquitous in mainstream media. By mid-October the New York Times reported fully vaccinated in Israel would include three jabs. German media DW highlighted just a couple of weeks ago that the booster program paid off.   Kids were the last frontier.  

In the meantime, in the Palestinian Territories cases continued to be low with low full vaccination rate of about 28%.  Why have the case infection rate been so much lower in these areas since the spring? It could be seasonality but given the proximity to Israel and the fact that strict entry requirements only lets fully vaccinated persons from Palestine to Israel we cannot be certain. 

Kid Immunization Commences

Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s nine-year-old son was one of the first children to receive the shot.  Bennett said the vaccination of children “safeguards both children and parents, and the entire State of Israel.”

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At the same time, according to HaAretz, Bennett has called for an antigen test in schools right after the Hanukkah break. The coronavirus cabinet also said that indoor restrictions should continue for another two weeks.

The “R” Number

Prof. Eran Segal of the Weitzman Institute, who is advising the cabinet said that the level of immunity of the vaccines has fallen since November, and this “reflected by the rise in the number of confirmed cases.”  According to Segal, the reasons for the increase in the R number, which is the number each infected coronavirus carrier infects, is because restrictions have been relaxed, the rise of infections in children, and a lapse of immunity in the public.

As Segal says: “In this reality, vaccines aren’t enough to stop the [coronavirus] wave, and we need to continue using all the effective methods that minimize infection without hurting the economy.”

The Israeli coronavirus advisory panel also recommended that public awareness should be “strengthened” as well as better enforcement of the “Green Pass,” which Israelis use to prove they’ve been vaccinated.

The panel concluded by saying that there is no clear sign of a significant covid outbreak but there is a strong likelihood an outbreak “will occur.”  The panel attributes this to waning immunity and delay in getting a booster shot.

Call to ActionTrialSite will continue to monitor the Israeli press as well as communicate with community members in the country.  The mass booster program commenced during the late summer and mainstream media declared a success by October as cases plummeted throughout September. With cases moving back up, TrialSite monitors this nation carefully.