In order for the effectiveness of something to wane, it first has to be effective. This common sense logic doesn’t pass the smell test when it comes to the outcomes of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine clinical trials. Absolute risk reductions (ARR) of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were 0.708% and 1.1439%, respectively (rounded here to the nearest ten-thousandth of one percent). These ultralow numbers of the vaccines’ effectiveness to prevent COVID-19 infections were never reported to the public. Instead, the public was fed the lie that the vaccines were approximately 95% effective: Outcome Reporting Bias in COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Clinical Trials.
Otherwise known as “vaccine efficacy,” this 95% distorted figure is calculated by dividing the ARR by the placebo infection rate of a clinical trial, which raises the ARR to a higher number. How much higher? See for yourself. The Pfizer and Moderna placebo infection rates from the trials are 0.745% and 1.2163%, respectively.
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Pfizer: 0.708% ARR / 0.745% placebo infection = 95% vaccine efficacy
Moderna: 1.1439% ARR / 1.2163% placebo infection = 94% vaccine efficacy
One could come up with an infinite number of examples equalling a ratio of 95%, all of which would be just as meaningless in reporting the causative results of a clinical trial where only absolute numbers matter.
The ARR is simply the absolute mathematical difference between the infection rates in the vaccine and placebo groups of a clinical trial. This is the more meaningful number to determine the clinical and public health efficacy of the vaccines. The reciprocal of the ARR (1/ARR) tells you the number needed to vaccinate (NNV), or the absolute number of people who were vaccinated to reduce one infection.
On the other hand, ratios in epidemiology are intended to measure associations (not causes) between exposures and risks in a population sample where the exact number of cases in the population is unknown. But ratios or relative risks are unreliable for measuring causes in an experimental trial. That’s because the same 95% ratio can be calculated from completely different ARRs and placebo infection rates. Unreliability is like using a ruler or a weight scale that gives you completely different measurements every time you take a measurement of something that hasn’t changed.
Waning Vaccine Effectiveness Cover-Up
The large number of vaccine breakthrough infections is emerging evidence exposing the lie that the vaccines are 95% effective. However, as an excuse to cover up their lie, public health authorities have now sold the public on yet another lie—telling the public: that the vaccine effectiveness is waning, and therefore booster shots are needed to restore the vaccines’ effectiveness back up to full protection.
Using the same misleading calculations, Pfizer reported that its booster is 95.6% effective: Pfizer/BioNTech Fail to Report Low Absolute Risk Reduction in COVID-19 Booster Vaccine.
The good news is that the absolute risk reduction of the Pfizer booster shot is three times more effective than the original shot. The bad news is that the absolute risk reduction of the booster vaccine is still a mere 2.1%…just more of the same disinformation about vaccine effectiveness!